The PRC’s 15th Five-Year Plan

How the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Is Preparing for the Next Era of Global Competition

NOTE: This overview is the first in a series of deeper dives into the 15^th Five-Year Plan’s most consequential themes.

The PRC recently adopted its 15^th Five-Year Plan (FYP), outlining an ambitious set of national economic and social development priorities for the next five years.

For decades, the PRC’s “five-year plans” have served as its central governance instrument—translating leadership priorities into coordinated action across industry, technology, and society. The 15^th FYP follows that established model, but reflects a more complex strategic environment, shaped by domestic economic pressures, heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving global trade dynamics, and intensifying technological competition.

To understand how the PRC’s five-year plans function—and how their outcomes are evaluated—the 14^th FYP provides the most relevant baseline.

14^th Five-Year Plan Recap

The 14^th FYP (2021–2025) was tasked with delivering both growth and some structural reform, and by most official indicators it did. The PRC’s economy expanded at an average annual rate of roughly 5.5% over the first four years, contributing around 30% of global growth annually. At the same time, R&D investment rose nearly 50% compared to the previous plan period, supporting visible advances across sectors—from the C919 commercial aircraft and the Chang’e-6 lunar mission, to large language models and globally competitive new energy vehicles.

However, the Plan also exposed PRC vulnerabilities. Export controls, supply chain disruptions, and escalating trade tensions highlighted the limits of external dependence. Talent gaps in the digital economy widened, while the transition from investment-led to innovation-driven growth remained incomplete. The 15^th FYP is, in part, a response to these constraints.

15^th Five-Year Plan Process

The 15^th FYP was developed through a structured, multi-year process led by the central authorities and coordinated across multiple levels of government. Preliminary research, led by the National Development and Reform Commission, began in December 2023 and included early assessments of 14^th FYP implementation. By mid-2024, President Xi Jinping called for comprehensive preparations, emphasizing the need for rigorous evaluation and forward-looking planning.

In January 2025, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership established a central drafting group headed by Xi. The group convened its first plenary session in February 2025, marking the official start of the drafting phase. Six central research teams were subsequently deployed across 12 provincial-level regions to collect local input. During this period, Xi conducted multiple field visits to companies and communities, including engagements with advanced technology sectors such as the large-model AI incubator in Shanghai.

The draft plan was submitted to the fourth plenary session of the 20^th CCP Central Committee, held in October 2025, where it was deliberated and adopted. Final approval was granted by the National People’s Congress in March 2026, completing the formal policy cycle.

15^th Five-Year Plan Overview

The 15^th FYP builds on priorities established under the 14^th FYP, with a clearer emphasis on resilience, industrial upgrading, and technological self-reliance. Rather than prioritizing growth alone, the plan positions high-quality development, real-economy strengthening, domestic demand, continued “opening-up,” and national security as mutually reinforcing pillars of the PRC’s next stage of development.

AI: A National Imperative

The 15^th FYP’s "AI+ Action Plan" reflects Beijing’s intent to embed AI across every dimension of the PRC’s economy and society—from scientific research and industrial production to public services, governance, and daily life. The plan builds a national AI foundation anchored in computing infrastructure, advanced algorithms, and large-scale data resources, while driving integration across critical sectors including energy, advanced manufacturing, agriculture, and healthcare. Beyond domestic deployment, the plan advances a global agenda—promoting a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, multilateral AI partnerships under the Belt and Road Initiative, and a globally open AI open-source ecosystem. As Beijing consolidates its core technological capabilities and competes for high-end talent, foreign organizations face elevated risks of talent competition, IP exposure, and the erosion of technological advantage.

Talent: The Defining Challenge

As the PRC scales its technological and industrial ambitions under the 15^th FYP, demand for advanced-technology expertise will continue to outpace supply. The plan responds with a state-led “world-class talent engine” designed to attract leading experts in priority technologies by offering autonomy, globally competitive pay, and optimal research conditions. A separate proposal calls for Beijing municipality to launch a “New Thousand Talents Program” to recruit 1,000 top scientists—primarily from the U.S. and Europe—in sectors including AI, information technology, synthetic biology, and advanced materials. At the regional level, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are each advancing locally tailored approaches—from dual-appointment recruitment models to non-traditional roles like “science vice presidents”—to embed talent acquisition within broader innovation ecosystems. As these efforts continue to scale, persistent workforce gaps will intensify external sourcing and heighten global competition for advanced technology talent over the next five years.

Industry: Building from Within

The 15^th FYP also prioritizes building a modernized industrial system along two parallel tracks. The first focuses on upgrading traditional industries—steel, petrochemicals, shipbuilding, and electronics—pushing production toward higher-value, supply-scarce products that have historically depended on foreign suppliers. The second targets emerging industries—integrated circuits, embodied AI, bio-manufacturing, commercial aviation, and brain-computer interfaces—positioning them as new drivers of economic growth. Together, these two tracks reflect the plan’s broader ambition to build an industrial base that is, in the Plan’s own words, “more self-supporting and risk-resilient” and capable of withstanding the kind of external pressure and supply chain disruption that has defined the past five years.

Conclusion

Our next post will examine the PRC’s AI ambitions in greater detail—what the AI+ agenda means in practice and where the risks for foreign organizations are most acute. From there, the series will turn to talent, exploring how the PRC’s recruitment push is reshaping global competition for advanced-technology expertise. Another post will take a closer look at the PRC’s industrial strategy—what it means for supply chains, emerging sectors, and the organizations that depend on them.